Grading Rubric:
The scoring is based on a few key aspects: player talent (P score 1-5), team strength (T score 1-4), and workload (W score 1-3) for a total score out of 12. Be mindful the value of workload is higher in points than category scoring leagues.
1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (P=5, T=4, W=3, total=12)
A+
At the top of the class is the reigning Conn Smythe winner, Andrei Vasilevskiy. No surprise here as he scores at the top of each aspect of the grading rubric. An elite goalie on a dominant team with an unthreatening back-up of Brian Elliott allows him to get the lion’s share of the starts.
2. Connor Hellebuyck (P=5, T=3.5, W= 3, total=11.5)
A+
Not far behind Vasilevskiy is the Winnipeg Jets starting goalie, Connor Hellebuyck. A very similair situation to Vasilevskiy, but a weaker team. The moves they made this off-season improved their defence and should benefit Hellebuyck, but at this point have to give the higher team score to the back-to-back Stanley cup champions.
3. Robin Lehner (P=4, T=4, W=3, total=11)
A
A lot of the same strengths of the past two goalies put Lehner in a very similiar situation, but just not quite a same individual talent level of the last two men. One concern of Lehner is his injury history, he is a bigger man and has had some lower body injuries. He came into camp having lost some weight which is encouraging, but it is already being reported he has had a minor lower body injury in pre-season.
4. Darcy Kuemper (P=4, T=4, W=2.5 total=10.5)
A
The newly signed Kuemper is walking into the starting position for a legitimate cup contender. Kuemper will be playing with a high scoring and strong defensive team and should have a solid statistical season. The one concern is with his previous injury history, the Avs may try to mix in Francouz plenty to keep Kuemper healthy for their playoff run.
5. Igor Shesterkin (P=5, T=3, W=2, total=10)
A
Shesterkin is a very talented goalie on an emerging team. Their team strength still isn’t the best and is in a tough division. Igor has had some stellar play while being peppered with shots so this may still add to his fantasy value. Georgiev is a decent back up and will cut a bit into Shesterkin’s starts.
6. Jacob Markstrom (P=4, T=2.5, W=3, total=9.5)
B+
This is ranking will depend a bit on your league’s scoring. Markstrom is positioned to be an absolute workhorse in a defensive minded team for Sutter’s Flames. The team will not be strong, but is playing in a weaker division. With Markstrom’s talent and workload, as well as he tends to play his best when leaned on, he is positioned to have a strong fantasy season.
7. Juuse Saros (P=4, T=2, W=3, total=9)
B+
Basically the same story as Markstorm, but Saros is in a more difficult division.
8. Marc-Andre Fleury (P=4, T=2.5, W=2, total=8.5)
B
Chicago is looking for a bounce back this season when they brought in the Vezina winner Fleury, but besides Seth Jones, their defense is suboptimal to play behind. The team as a whole should be better and get more wins which will help Fleury’s value, but the young Lankinen will be in the crease a fair amount as well to share the workload.
9. Fredrik Andersen (P=2.5, T=3.5, W=2, total=8.5)
B
After some down years and injuries in Toronto, Andersen signed in Carolina which looks to be a powerhouse this season. If Freddy finds his game and gets a healthy dose of starts, his fantasy value could be excellent this season. Bit of risk with his injury and recent play but I’m betting on a bounce back this season.
10. Jordan Binnington (P=3, T=3, W=2.5, total =8.5)
B
Binnington has came back down to earth since the incredible stanley cup season the Blues had. He still is an average to above average goalie on an average to above average team and will see a lot of starts and shots and will be a decent fantasy goalie this season.
11. Seymon Varlamov (P=4, T=3, W=1.5, total=8.5)
B
This is where your league scoring system starts greatly impacting goalie’s values. Varlamov’s stats behind Trotz’s defensive structure are incredible but his workload will be nearly 50% with Sorokin. His stats are great for category leagues, but limited play brings his value down in points league. The shutouts he accumulates though will make you a happy fantasy owner.
12. Thatcher Demko (P=3.5, T=2.5, W=2, total=8)
C+
Demko is poised for a breakout this season. He is a gifted young goalie, but the defense he is playing behind will be a challenge.
13. Linus Ullmark (P=3, T=3, W=2, total=8)
C+
Ullmark’s stats have been improving each year and that has been behind a terrible team. Last season he had a good season when healthy and the hope is he should have plenty of value now in Boston. Bit of a sleeper pick with Rask still injured and unsigned, Ullmark has high potential for a breakout season.
15. Mike Smith (P=3, T=3, W=2, total =8)
C+
There is risk when drafting a 39 year old who is coming off the best season he has had in a decade and a high chance of regression is present. For Smith, if he can stay healthy he will have likely average numbers but Tippett loves him and will give him every opportunity to succeed. Koskinen is unlikely to split the starts and the Oilers will win a lot of games with their offensive firepower and their weak division. It’s tough to not see his game declining, but he is still in a position to be successful.
16. Ilya Sorokin (P=3.5, T=3, W=1.5, total=8)
C+
The other half of the excellent tandem in Long Island. The debate here is proven vs up-and-coming. Personally, I feel the value of Sorokin is better than Varlamov, taking him a little later with the injury history of Varlamov he could become the outright starter.
16. Carter Hart (P=3, T=2.5, W=2.5, total=8)
C+
Hart and the Flyers had a terrible season last year, but I feel we see a bounce back for both. Hart has looked good in camp and preseason, getting back to his fundamentals in body position and style. The Flyers will lean on Hart and I think he will have a strong season.
17. Spencer Knight / Sergei Bobrovsky (P=3, T=3.5, W=1.5, total=8)
C+
It felt right doing the Panthers’ netminders together. Knight, a first round pick who showed plenty of promise last season, but in only 4 games. Bobrovsky who once was a perennial vezina candidate, but since signing a big ticket salary in Florida has been below league average for the past two seasons. Both goalies have risk, will the Panthers ride the hot hand, try to justify Bobrovsky contract and give him the majority of the starts, or does Knight play too well to be the back-up? It’s hard to say how this tandem will shake out with both goalies having chances of boom or bust fantasy value behind the elite Panthers’ line-up.
19. Cam Talbot (P=2.5, T=3, W=2, total=7.5)
C
Talbot has had a career rollercoaster of stats as he has bounced around teams lately. When he was signed by the Wild, it brought him into a defensively structured team that allowed him to succeed. The Wild made a lot of progress last year in the pursuit of reclaiming their position as a top western conference team. This bodes well for Talbot as they should rack up more wins. The one concern is rising goalie Kahkonen and his potential of stealing starts.
20. Phillip Grubauer (P=3, T=2.5, W=2, total=7.5)
C
Grubrauer had an excellent season behind the powerhouse Avalanche, but is going to Seattle where goal scoring is gonna be tough. The Kraken have a good defence core that could benefit Grubauer, but with Driedger likely to get a good amount of starts, Grubauer will have quite a drop from his last season value.
And the Rest…
The remaining goalies are typically either a workhorse on a bad team, part of a tandem that has some sizeable risk, or are mainly a back-up, so rather than grading each individual, they will be ranked with some small notes attached to some possible “hot takes”.
22. John Gibson
23. Ilya Samsonov
24. Jack Campbell
25. Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh likely to have big slide this season with age and injuries and could battle DeSmith for starts. Both have been inconsistent.
26. Petr Mrazek
27. Anton Kuhudobin – Slotted as starter in Dallas but super murky with all of the goalies competing for the net, I would avoid all of them.
28. Vitek Vanecek – Sleeper pick, great value. Often can go undrafted and I feel could take starting role from Samsonov by either play or injury.
29. Jake Allen
30. Antti Raanta
31. Alex Nedeljkovic
32. Calvin Petersen
33. Matt Murray
34. Carey Price – with off season surgery and latest news of entering the player program and the regression of Montreal, I would avoid Price completely for fantasy.
35. Jonathan Bernier
36. Kevin Lankinen
37. Elvis Merzlikins
38. Mackenzie Blackwood – Was poised for a big season with the new defence pieces brought in to NJ, but the drama around vaccination status could complicate things. High risk, but potential high reward.
39. Mikko Koskinen
40. Alexander Georgiev
41. Kaapo Kahkonen
42. Chris Driedger
43. Braden Holtby
44. Jonas Korpisalo
45. Laurent Brossoit
46. Jaroslav Halak
47. Jeremy Swayman
48. Carter Hutton
49. Thomas Griess
50. Casey DeSmith
Note:
Jake Oettinger is a great goalie in the making, but with all of the congestion of Dallas goalies and Oettinger’s contract allowing him to not go through waivers, he will likely be in the AHL to start the season. With his talent he will have success in the NHL at some point, but when that opportunity will be is uncertain. If there is any additional injuries in Dallas and Oettinger is called up, target him especially in keeper/dynasty leagues.